Published: September 30, 2026 · 12:00 AM Israel time
️ Channel 16 poll puts Netanyahu’s bloc ahead, short of a majority: A September 29 Channel 16/Maagar Mochot poll projects 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 51 for the non-Arab opposition and 12 for the Arab parties, with Hendel-Zelekha’s four seats counted separately. Netanyahu’s camp is eight seats short of the 61 needed for a governing majority. The reported maximum sampling error is ±4.2%.
The party breakdown is: Eisenkot’s Yashar 21, Likud 19, Bennett’s Together 14, Democrats 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, Shas 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, UTJ 7, Joint List 7, Religious Zionism–Zehut 6, Ra’am 5, Ofer Winter 5 and Hendel-Zelekha 4.
Compared with Channel 16’s September 24 poll, Netanyahu’s bloc gains one seat and the non-Arab opposition loses one, breaking a 52–52 tie. Eisenkot falls from 23 to 21, Likud remains at 19, Bennett rises from 13 to 14, Democrats rise from 8 to 9 and Yisrael Beiteinu falls from 8 to 7. Winter rises from 4 to 5 and Religious Zionism–Zehut from 5 to 6, while Otzma Yehudit falls from 9 to 8. Hendel-Zelekha remains at 4.
Eisenkot’s lead over Likud narrows from four seats to two, while Likud’s lead over Bennett shrinks from six to five. Winter, Religious Zionism–Zehut and Hendel-Zelekha all clear the electoral threshold in this poll. However, the available published reports do not provide their exact vote shares, leaving Hendel-Zelekha’s four-seat result potentially sensitive to the threshold.
Differences between pollsters remain much larger than the movements within this series. Channel 14’s September 28 poll placed Winter at 1.6% and Hendel-Zelekha at 2.1%, both below the threshold, while giving Religious Zionism–Zehut seven seats. It also put Eisenkot at 21, but Likud at 31 and Bennett at 9, compared with 19 and 14 respectively in Channel 16.
The September 27 Kan/Kantar poll gave Eisenkot 23, Likud 21, Bennett 11, Winter 4 and Religious Zionism–Zehut 6, with the blocs tied at 52–52. These discrepancies caution against treating Eisenkot’s decline or Winter’s rise in Channel 16 as an established national trend.
The shift does not resolve either bloc’s majority problem. Netanyahu’s 53 seats would become 57 with Hendel-Zelekha. The non-Arab opposition’s 51 would become 55 with Hendel-Zelekha and 60 with Ra’am’s five added. Those combinations still fall short of 61.
️ Eisenkot’s party denies reports of Shin Bet protection: In a separate statement concerning protection for Eisenkot, his party said: “The Shin Bet has informed us that it will not provide him with security protection, contrary to reports.”
⛽ Smotrich orders preparation of additional gasoline subsidy: Smotrich said he had instructed Finance Ministry professional staff to prepare an additional subsidy to curb the surge in gasoline prices for consumers.
https://www.israelrealtime.com/p/channel-16-poll-shows-no-majority
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