Notícias e Denúncias – Livre

 Published: October 4, 2026 · 11:30 PM Israel time

 Kan poll puts Netanyahu’s bloc at 51 seats: The latest Kan 11/Dudi Hassid-Kantar survey projects 52 seats for the non-Arab opposition and 13 for Arab parties, with Hendel-Zelekha’s four seats counted separately. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael falls below the 3.25% electoral threshold after receiving four seats in Kan’s previous poll.

The party breakdown is Yashar 23, Likud 21, Bennett 12, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Democrats 8, Joint List 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Religious Zionism-Zehut 6, Ra’am 5 and Hendel-Zelekha 4.

Compared with September 27, Yashar and Likud remain unchanged, Bennett rises from 11 to 12 and the Democrats fall from nine to eight. Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Joint List each gain one seat, while Religious Zionism-Zehut remains at six.

Gains among the other coalition parties cushion Winter’s loss, leaving Netanyahu’s bloc down one seat, from 52 to 51. The Likud-Bennett gap narrows from ten seats to nine.

 Other surveys show different bloc totals: Zman Yisrael’s Tattica Research and Media poll gives Netanyahu’s coalition 53 seats, the opposition 49, Hendel-Zelekha five and Arab parties 13. Its breakdown is Yashar and Likud 21 each; Beyachad and Yisrael Beiteinu ten each; Shas nine; United Torah Judaism, Democrats and Joint List eight each; Otzma Yehudit six; Ra’am, Religious Zionism and Hendel-Zelekha five each; and Amcha Yisrael four.

The i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey gives the coalition 60 seats, the opposition 47 and Arab parties 13. Channel 13 gives Netanyahu’s bloc 54, the opposition 52 and Arab parties 14, with Yashar at 21, Likud 19, Bennett 11, Smotrich seven and Winter five. Hendel-Zelekha fall below the threshold in that survey.

A separate weekly roundup, whose Channel 11 figure differs from the latest Kan result, lists opposition and coalition totals, respectively, of 52–52 for Channel 11, 52–54 for Channel 13, 47–60 for Channel 15, 51–53 for Channel 16 and 49–53 for The Times of Israel.

️ Threshold risks and coalition arithmetic: Winter remains above the threshold in six of eight active surveys, down from seven. Hendel-Zelekha clear it in five of eight. The polling analysis identifies increased threshold risk for Winter but cautions that the comparisons do not establish a collapse across pollsters. Religious Zionism-Zehut’s six seats in Kan provide more breathing room, although its recent range remains roughly four to seven.

Differences between pollsters remain larger than the movement within Kan. Netanyahu’s bloc ranges from about 51 seats in Kan and Maariv/Lazar to 60 in i24NEWS/Direct Polls and above 60 in Channel 14. Likud ranges from 19–21 in several mainstream surveys to 28 in Direct Polls and 31 in Channel 14, while Eisenkot’s Yashar is more consistent at roughly 21–23. The polling analysis interprets this pattern as indicating substantial pollster and model effects.

The analysis also offers an explicitly approximate interpretation of Kan’s redistribution, suggesting that the opposition lost roughly one seat’s worth of support to Netanyahu’s bloc and another to Arab parties.

Kan’s arithmetic leaves the same potential route to 61: the non-Arab opposition’s 52 seats, Hendel-Zelekha’s four and Ra’am’s five. Netanyahu’s bloc remains ten seats short; adding Hendel-Zelekha would bring it to 55. The analysis therefore treats Winter’s threshold result as significant without showing a major change in the overall balance.

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