Published: October 9, 2026 · 2:30 PM Israel time
️ News 13 projects Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats: The October 7 News 13 / HaMadad poll puts Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar at 20 seats each, followed by Bennett’s Together at 12, Democrats 10, Joint List nine, Yisrael Beiteinu eight, Otzma Yehudit eight, UTJ eight, Shas seven, Religious Zionism–Zehut seven, Ra’am six and Ofer Winter five.
The stated blocs are Netanyahu 55, non-Arab opposition 50 and Arab parties 15. Netanyahu’s total includes Winter’s five seats; his established coalition parties alone receive 50. His bloc is closest to 61 but remains six seats short.
Compared with September 30, Netanyahu’s bloc rises from 54 to 55, the non-Arab opposition falls from 52 to 50, and Arab parties increase from 14 to 15. Likud rises from 19 to 20, Eisenkot falls from 21 to 20, Bennett rises from 11 to 12, Democrats fall from 11 to 10, and Yisrael Beiteinu drops from nine to eight. Winter remains at five and Smotrich–Zehut at seven.
Eisenkot loses his remaining two-seat lead over Likud in this series, while the Likud–Bennett gap remains eight seats. Netanyahu also narrows the prime-minister suitability gap: Eisenkot receives 44% and Netanyahu 40%, compared with 44%–38% previously.
The non-Arab opposition’s 50 seats cannot reach 61 through Ra’am’s six alone. Including both Arab lists would produce 65, but this represents coalition arithmetic rather than an agreed coalition.
️ Channel 14 projects a 63-seat Netanyahu majority: The October 7 Channel 14 / NEXT DATA poll gives Likud 31 seats, Eisenkot 23, Shas 10, Democrats nine, Bennett eight, UTJ eight, Otzma Yehudit eight, Joint List seven, Religious Zionism–Zehut six, Yisrael Beiteinu five and Ra’am five.
Its stated blocs are Netanyahu 63, non-Arab opposition 45 and Arab parties 12. Netanyahu retains a projected self-contained majority, two seats above 61, without Winter or Hendel–Zelekha.
Compared with October 1, Netanyahu’s bloc slips from 64 to 63. Likud falls from 32 to 31, Eisenkot rebounds from 21 to 23, and Bennett remains at eight. Smotrich–Zehut declines from seven to six, while Otzma Yehudit rises from seven to eight.
The Likud–Bennett gap narrows from 24 to 23 seats, and Eisenkot reduces his deficit against Likud from 11 seats to eight. Netanyahu’s head-to-head prime-minister preference lead narrows to 52%–48%, from 54%–46% the previous week.
The projected governing scenario remains unchanged: Netanyahu’s bloc retains its majority despite losing one seat.
️ Winter’s threshold uncertainty affects coalition arithmetic: News 13 gives Winter five seats, while Channel 14 places him at 2.2%, below the 3.25% electoral threshold, though up from 1.7%.
Hendel–Zelekha remain below the threshold in both surveys, at 2.9% in News 13 and 1.8% in Channel 14. Both figures improved slightly, but neither list qualifies for representation.
Smotrich–Zehut receives seven seats in News 13 and six in Channel 14. The comparative polling analysis assesses its position as substantially stronger and more secure than Winter’s or Hendel–Zelekha’s.
That analysis identifies Winter winning five seats rather than none as a considerable factor in Netanyahu’s potential coalition arithmetic. Neither October 7 survey tests a newly announced merger.
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