Published: October 14, 2026 · 5:30 PM Israel time
October 13 polls present conflicting electoral pictures: Polls reported Tuesday night, October 13, differed sharply. Poll 16 gave Netanyahu’s party 18 seats and his bloc a two-seat lead over the Change Bloc. Yaron Zelekha received five seats, while Ofer Winter crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold.
i24NEWS put Netanyahu’s bloc at 57 seats, with Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar each gaining one seat. Winter was close to but below the threshold; Yoaz Hendel and Zelekha were further below. Walla gave the Change Bloc a five-seat lead, with Winter below the cutoff.
Earlier polls highlight coalition arithmetic and threshold risks: Monday’s October 12 Channel 12/Midgam poll put Netanyahu’s bloc at 49 seats, unchanged. Channel 14/Next Data gave it a bare 61-seat majority, down from 63. Likud weakened in both polls: Channel 12 put Yashar at 23 seats and Likud at 20, while Channel 14 put Likud at 29 and Yashar at 20.
Channel 12’s suitability ratings favored Eisenkot over Netanyahu, 45%–35%, and Bennett over Netanyahu, 37%–36%. Channel 14 favored Netanyahu over Eisenkot, 52%–48%.
Channel 12’s 54 core non-Arab opposition seats, Hendel-Zelekha’s four and Ra’am’s five would total 63, but that combination remains politically unconfirmed. Channel 14’s core non-Arab opposition had 42 seats, or 46 including Hendel-Zelekha. Arab parties held 13 seats in both polls.
Sunday’s October 11 Kan 11/Kantar poll put Netanyahu’s established coalition parties at 49 seats, down from 51. Winter’s four seats lifted the broader aligned bloc to 53. The non-Arab opposition had 50; adding Hendel-Zelekha and Ra’am would reach only 59. Neither camp independently had a majority.
Winter was below the threshold in Monday’s polls, at 1.8% in Channel 12 and 2.9% in Channel 14, leaving his prospects uncertain. Hendel-Zelekha received four seats in both Monday polls, exposing it to modest shifts. Religious Zionism–Zehut remained represented but fell to five seats in Kan’s poll.
These differences reflect polling organizations, models and bloc definitions. They do not establish rapid voter movement or a sustained national shift.
️ Winter’s list loses its first candidate: Davidi Ben Zion, deputy head of the Shomron Regional Council, became the first candidate to leave Winter’s Amcha Yisrael list: “I am withdrawing from the list. We must not waste voters’ votes.”
The party thanked him and alleged that he and his family, including his children, had faced pressure, threats and harassment. Netanyahu welcomed the withdrawal, arguing that Winter’s candidacy endangered the right-wing bloc and would produce a left-wing government comprising Eisenkot, Yair Golan, Lieberman, Bennett and the Arab parties. He urged other candidates to follow Ben Zion.
At a voters’ conference in Eilat, Winter condemned the personal attacks as “disgraceful and despicable” and declared: “We’re going all the way now. We do not surrender in battle.”
According to Arutz Sheva/Channel 7, Smotrich said he had offered Winter the top spot on a joint list, asserting: “There’s no chance he’ll pass the electoral threshold.” Separately, at the Yedioth Ahronoth Conference, Winter accused Netanyahu of hurting the right-wing bloc.
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