Published: October 29, 2026 · 8:30 PM Israel time
️ Segal assesses consequences for a minority government: Segal noted that the allegations emerged during negotiations over a minority government supported by Ra’am and the Joint List. He assessed that the disclosure removes the already unlikely possibility of forming such a government, at least until the investigation concludes.
Segal also criticized what he described as the Change Bloc’s silence, contrasting its response with its usual criticism of Qatari money.
He assessed that invalidating the entire election was extremely unlikely given the timetable, as was conducting a repeat vote across the thousands of polling stations in Arab communities. In his view, the affair instead increases the likelihood of a unity government or new elections, either of which would remove the practical need to invalidate part of the existing results.
️ Coalition options remain constrained by parliamentary support: In an earlier assessment, before the foreign-funding affair became public, Segal said the Change Bloc and Ra’am would probably finish with more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc. Even so, he assessed that they would still need the Joint List to abstain to establish a minority government. He described that as the only feasible, though unlikely, route to a temporary government.
Segal also reported that several Yashar! lawmakers oppose a government dependent on Arab-party abstentions, let alone their participation in a coalition.
He said Bennett and Lapid together then held one more projected seat than the Joint List. In his assessment, that could determine the opposition leadership under a unity government, giving Bennett the position and its security briefings rather than Yousef Jabareen. These assessments concerned the provisional seat picture at the time of his reporting.
Eisenkot said: “We are still focused on forming a Zionist government that supports military conscription.”
Segal interpreted that formulation as pointing toward a unity government without the ultra-Orthodox parties. He also questioned whether it could instead be used to describe a 48-seat minority government supported by parties he characterized as pro-Palestinian. Separately, he assessed that Netanyahu would remain prime minister for the foreseeable future.
Avigdor Lieberman said he would not sit with Netanyahu or Tibi. Segal argued that the statement left unanswered whether Lieberman would join a coalition with Ra’am or accept Tibi’s support from outside it, and therefore did not clearly resolve his position on the available coalition options.
POLITICO reports frustration in Washington over the deadlock: POLITICO reports that Israel’s election deadlock has frustrated hopes in Washington of moving beyond Netanyahu, despite President Trump’s continued support for him. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition secured a majority, potentially allowing him to remain in office for months.
“There is Netanyahu fatigue here,” a former Trump official told the publication. The report describes concerns about Netanyahu’s influence on the Iran war and U.S.-Israel relations.
According to POLITICO, some U.S. officials want Netanyahu’s far-right allies excluded from a future government. The report also cites analysts warning that he could launch an attack on Iran to remain in power.
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